Supplemental Videos of Simulation Outcomes

Our model of COVID-19 transmission in prisons replicates a prison’s residential arrangement, including the number of rooms by occupancy, within buildings, and in turn within yards. This allows the analysis to simulate the spread of infections across a prison. This page contains supplemental videos to accompany our paper that demonstrate the simulated spread of COVID-19 infections in two prisons – a low-to-medium security prison with mostly dorms (dorms_spread.gif) and a high-security prison with mostly cells (cells_spread.gif). Both videos show depict the percentage of prison residents infected over 200 days after a initial infection is introduced on day 1. In the videos, thin white lines denote rooms (e.g. cells or dorms), thick white lines denote buildings, and black lines denote prison yards. The sizes of the rooms (boxes outlined in thin white lines) corresponds to their occupancy and the shading corresponds to the percentage of occupants that are infected. These videos are designed to illustrate the structure of our model only. They do not replicate empirical data or demonstrate projections associated with any particular policy.

For the full study and more details about our model, please refer to:
Ryckman T, Chin E, Prince L, Leidner D, Long E, Studdert D, Salomon J, Alarid-Escudero F, Andrews J, and Goldhaber-Fiebert J “Outbreaks of COVID-19 Variants in U.S. Prisons: A Mathematical Modeling Analysis of Vaccination and Re-Opening Policies” Lancet Public Health